Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

25 bps increase · Resolves Jul 29, 2026 · Rank #10 of 147 by adj. reward

Risk score

34.1/ 100Medium risk

Volatility+28.5 pts

24h move 12.2%severity 81/100 · weight 35%

Liquidity / depth+3.4 pts

24h volume $206.5Kseverity 11/100 · weight 30%

Spread width+0.4 pts

spread 0.1%severity 2/100 · weight 20%

Time to resolution+1.8 pts

resolves in 15dseverity 12/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Capital posted

Target spread (max 4.5¢)

1.0¢

Quote

Projected daily reward

$5.28/ day

Your score: 302
Competing: 71244
Your share: 0.4%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$71.2K of competing score currently resting within 4.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $1.3K/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 4.5¢, min size $200, midpoint 0.34, pool) is live from Polymarket.