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Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?

Ulf Kristersson · Resolves Sep 13, 2026 · Rank #10 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

38.9/ 100Medium risk
Volatility+10.5 pts
24h move 4.5%severity 30/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+5.4 pts
24h volume $81.9Kseverity 18/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+8.0 pts
spread 2.0%severity 40/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+15.0 pts
resolves in endedseverity 100/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$400
Adj. reward
$244
Spread
2.0%
24h move
4.5%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$81.9K
Resolves
ended
Outcome prices
Yes 11¢ · No 89¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$39.13/ day
Your score
335
Competing
3087
Your share
9.8%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$3.1K of competing score currently resting within 5.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $400/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 5.5¢, min size $100, midpoint 0.11, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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