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Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Flávio Bolsonaro · Resolves Oct 4, 2026 · Rank #28 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

19.5/ 100Low risk
Volatility+5.8 pts
24h move 2.5%severity 17/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+8.6 pts
24h volume $18.9Kseverity 29/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+4.0 pts
spread 1.0%severity 20/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+1.1 pts
resolves in 18dseverity 7/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$132
Adj. reward
$106
Spread
1.0%
24h move
2.5%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$18.9K
Resolves
18d
Outcome prices
Yes 76¢ · No 25¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$2.07/ day
Your score
358
Competing
22467
Your share
1.6%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$22.5K of competing score currently resting within 6.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $132/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 6.5¢, min size $100, midpoint 0.76, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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Non-custodial, read-only analytics for Polymarket liquidity rewards. Flowlayer never holds, moves, or touches your funds.

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