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Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia (ER) · Resolves Sep 20, 2026 · Rank #32 of 150 by adj. reward

Risk score

23.4/ 100Low risk
Volatility+9.3 pts
24h move 4.0%severity 27/100 · weight 35%
Liquidity / depth+2.0 pts
24h volume $406.2Kseverity 7/100 · weight 30%
Spread width+4.0 pts
spread 1.0%severity 20/100 · weight 20%
Time to resolution+8.1 pts
resolves in 4dseverity 54/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Market stats

Reward / day
$136
Adj. reward
$104
Spread
1.0%
24h move
4.0%
Liquidity (24h vol)
$406.2K
Resolves
4d
Outcome prices
Yes 75¢ · No 26¢
View on Polymarket

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Quote
Projected daily reward
$0.72/ day

Below the $1 daily minimum — this would not be paid out.

Your score
358
Competing
67402
Your share
0.5%

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$67.4K of competing score currently resting within 6.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $136/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 6.5¢, min size $100, midpoint 0.74, pool) is live from Polymarket.

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