Will France win on 2026-07-14?

France · Resolves Jul 14, 2026 · Rank #3 of 147 by adj. reward

Risk score

16.4/ 100Low risk

Volatility+1.7 pts

24h move 0.8%severity 5/100 · weight 35%

Liquidity / depth+0.0 pts

24h volume $2.3Mseverity 0/100 · weight 30%

Spread width+1.0 pts

spread 0.3%severity 5/100 · weight 20%

Time to resolution+13.7 pts

resolves in 15hseverity 91/100 · weight 15%

Each input is scored 0–100 for severity, weighted, and summed — the points above add up to the total score. Unavailable inputs are excluded and the remaining weights renormalise.

Earnings estimator

A projection from Polymarket's reward formula on this market's live config — not a guaranteed payout.

Capital posted

Target spread (max 1.5¢)

0.8¢

Quote

Two-sided needs at least $1000 per side — post $2000+ total.

Projected daily reward

—

Your score: 109
Competing: 700874
Your share: —

Two-sided quote (capital split evenly across both sides). Assumes the ~$700.9K of competing score currently resting within 1.5¢ of the midpoint. Your reward is a moving share of a $1.4K/day pool, so it flexes as others add or pull liquidity. Config (max spread 1.5¢, min size $1000, midpoint 0.40, pool) is live from Polymarket.